The Association of the United States Army puts on an interesting annual exposition that is open and free to the public (with registration). It’s one of the many things that makes the U.S. a great place to live — transparency and accessibility are foundational elements of a free society. And free society leads to real democracy; the most broadly-based form of government, and therefore the most resilient. I attended to take a look at what the military and defense contractors are saying about themselves and what they’re making, and try to line that up against some of the more troubling trends facing the country’s first line of defense.

THE BIG STORY

AUSA Day One

Heavy on the garnish, light on the meat and potatoes

At a moment in history when the window is closing rapidly on innovation, AUSA showcased a defense industry hobbled by regulations, supply chain issues, and the military’s own slow procurement process.

The Association of the United States Army’s annual conference and exposition drew 35,000 registered attendees this year. It’s big. So big, in fact, that it took 2 hours this morning (from about 930am until 1130am) for me to acquire my registration badge. It would have taken less time, but I didn’t understand that the process for media is different from normal registrants.

Knowing things like that — where to get a badge, how to approach information booths, who to talk with — are the little details that make big functions like AUSA manageable. In this sense, AUSA is very much analogous to the many smaller and bigger events it represents — the meetings, lunches, presentations, and tests that go into selling and winning contracts with the U.S. Department of Defense. It’s a long line. There may be ways to make it shorter, but as a whole, the process is obscure and involves lots of lost time.

More than big money’s at stake. The future of the U.S. military is at stake, too, and that of other allies. How the Army performs during the opening months or years of a big war will determine much — and the Army we field, to paraphrase a misguided Rumsfeld quote, is the Army we’ll have. That Army, the Army of the present and that of (as far as I could tell at the event) the future may not be the Army we need, or want.

Walking the floor, I was struck by an overarching theme. Many of the business were selling a hi-tech, AI and automated, robotic vision of future operations. The devices were different from what I remembered from my time in the military, but the promise was the same — better detection, further out, greater precision. More and better drones. VTOL. Robotics that could do more stuff. Did I mention drones.

When I went to the booths and talked with people, the story behind the displays was usually a little different. After all, AUSA is being held days after Hamas staged an audacious old-school assault (led by paragliders, motorcycles, and bulldozers), and a year and a half into a war that, say what you will about drones, is still being determined largely by infantry clearing trenches, supported by artillery (to a great degree) and armor (to a somewhat lesser degree).

At a General Dynamics display, a representative talked me through an uncrewed tracked air defense system (ADA tank) armed with multiple stinger missiles and an autocannon equipped to automatically engage speedy and small quadcopter drones. The vehicle is intended to keep up with armored or mechanized forces on the move, to provide them with defense against fast-movers, rotary wing, and drone threats.

Curious, I asked how many drones it could protect against within its protective bubble. The representative didn’t have an exact answer (how could they) but each system might be expected to effectively engage a couple dozen out to the maximum range if under attack by a swarm. The representative pointed out that there would be more than one of these platforms in a formation, and that other systems would also likely be engaging.

Elsewhere, I stopped in with an exhibit extolling a modular system of drones that reminded me of the DJI Mavic 3. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine I’ve bought over a dozen DJI Mavic 3 drones (and complex systems to support them) so can tell you that on the low end, you’re looking at ~$1800 per drone, and at the higher end, ~$3000, depending on the package. These drones — more rugged and secure than Mavics, I was told — fetch between $35,000-$40,000 per package of 3, or around $9,000-$10,000 per drone. Even more troubling, it’s impossible to find enough components to manufacture a drone that is entirely “made in the USA.”

There were other exhibits — Bell’s new VTOL transport, replacing the Blackhawk helicopter — a boxy looking contraption to zap drones out of the sky — an upgraded radar for the patriot system that was “3 times better” in every conceivable way (target acquisition range, target tracking, 360 degree coverage). And many new ways to camouflage soldiers in a variety of environments.

But behind it all, there were concerns. At the drone booth, people were frustrated that there was no way to source enough parts to make a fully “made in the USA” drone — and that the parts they got from Europe were one reason their drone was far more expensive than an essentially similar drone from DJI. At another booth, I talked with a representative about 155mm ammunition, and the problems we have producing enough of it for a war. Big systemic problems which, if we can’t address now, will mean the fancy, hi-tech military of the future may not be able to stay in the ring with a wily and resilient foe.

I’m glad and grateful we’re still fielding fancy new future tech. It will help win battles. If we can’t find a way to build enough manufacturing capacity for basic items here in the U.S., winning battles might not be enough for us to win a war. That, more than anything, was the message many representatives seemed to want me to deliver, so that’s the message of this newsletter.

TOP READS IN MONEY & FINANCE

China’s Evergrande group, perhaps mortally wounded, is shuffling toward a financial precipice. It represents an over $330 billion liability.

How are conservative investors attempting to weather the financial instability currently contorting markets? Shorter dated, investment-grade debt.

Compounding agricultural disruption caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Hamas’s attack on Israel — which supplies 3% of the global supply of potash — has shaken up the fertilizer market.

9% drop in PC sales is, analysts believe, the bottom of the market. Might be time to buy your parent or child (depending on your age) a desktop before the market rebounds and relative demand starts to rise!

The U.S. bond market selloff is unprecedented. Nobody’s sure what to make of that, exactly.

TOP READS IN THE MILITARY

Death toll in Israel of U.S. citizens reaches 11.

The U.S. moves a carrier battle group to the Middle East, as military aid begins to flow in to Israel.

Long read about the thinking that went into the Army’s recruiting overhaul. Worthwhile.

The USMC has started to log lower level offenses in efforts understand and better track racism and hate crime culture in its ranks.

TOP READS FOR VETERANS

PACT Act scams are on the rise. Personally so sick that every time there’s a good piece of legislation, someone has to ruin it by running a con on vets.

One of the great advantages of the VA is its capacity to share data within its system. That’s just been extended to certain private health care systems.

TOP READS AROUND THE WORLD

Spillover from the Supreme Court decision regarding affirmative action has begun manifesting itself outside academia.

Some schools and school systems have cut honors classes as a way of encouraging diversity and addressing racial inequality. Unsurprisingly the experiment is yielding mixed results (at best).

Italy is cracking down on surrogacy. This is a weird one, to me.

Tech companies are struggling to monetize AI. Probably because the coverage and marketing vastly outstrips what AI can actually do, leading to disappointment and failed expectations.

RFK Jr bows out of the Democratic primary, vowing to run as an independent. I called this! I said, I swear, I said he’d do better as a Republican than a Democrat. But he can’t bring himself to admit it!

Israel prepares to besiege the Gaza Strip, mobilizing 300,000 Reservists (perhaps what is necessary for such a siege).

HUMOR

If you like the kind of humor they write at Clickhole you’ll like this piece. If you don’t, you’ll hate it! Simple as.