Walking around AUSA Tuesday, I ran into three people I knew from my first unit, the 173rd Airborne Brigade. My former company commander now commands a brigade. The battalion’s XO is a major general. And a fellow company XO of mine, who lived in the same apartment building (incidentally, the birthplace of Andrea Palladio, a famous renaissance architect) is now a lieutenant colonel, and a foreign affairs officer.

Seeing them all, I was reminded that although there are 35k registrants at AUSA, although the exposition is a big show about big ideas and big contracts, the military is actually quite small. Much of what gets done, many decisions that are made, happen partly as the result of experiences accumulated over lifetimes; years spent overseas. AUSA isn’t just an exposition or trade show — it’s also a big reunion. It made the experience feel more personal, somehow. Like coming home.

This is not an excuse for the newsletter being late today, or even an explanation. The newsletter’s tardiness is related to an exciting but early interview I scheduled this morning, which I’ll discuss at greater length Friday or Monday.

THE BIG STORY

AUSA Day Two: Ammo for Me, Ammo for You

If you could build an almost fully-automated factory with only a few people to run it, and you couldn’t own it — would you?

Tuesday I learned that the U.S. could almost certainly increase production of 155mm ammunition (and other forms of ammunition) up to the necessary numbers within months, if it wanted to. What, you may be wondering, is stopping that from happening? Two variables: automation and the politics around factories and systems without people in them, and concerns about companies outside the U.S. owning a critical piece of the process when it comes to ammo fabrication.

Before getting into the solution to America’s 155mm production woes, a short explanation of how things currently stand is in order. Two manufacturing systems go into creating basic (HEDP) 155mm shells: one in which the shell itself is built, in factories, using procedures that are nearly 100 years old, and another in which the shell, which has been built, is filled (carefully) with the explosive mixture and then cooled. The procedures are carried out by hand, and require expertise and skill, both of which are in short supply.

As I understand it, production of shells is more difficult and labor-intensive than filling them with explosives (this is not to say that filling those shells with explosives isn’t labor-intensive or that it is easy), and that the factory responsible for the second step could handle more shell throughput.

The problems of production in the U.S. of 155mm shells, then, are that it is extremely difficult and not cost-effective for a business to hire more workers to produce 155mm shells, and also that the procedure currently in use, which is quite old, is not efficient.

Repkon, a Turkish-headquartered company, claims to be able to produce as many 155mm shells as needed — 5,000 a month, 10,000 a month — using a nearly-fully automated, state-of-the-art procedure. Why would the U.S. balk at adopting this model?

The first concern, apparently, is political: worries that opening a new factory where one only hires several dozen workers will not provide the boost for which congressmen and senators hope. This is understandable. A community loses something when it opens a factory — environmentally, and in terms of quality of life. These losses are usually offset by jobs, by employment. A factory without workers is a political liability, even if it’s also effective at doing the job folks (in this case, the Department of Defense) hope for.

The second concern as I understand it revolves around a reluctance to hire a foreign company to provide a critical service of this nature to the U.S. To depend on Turkey for our ammunition, even partially, will mean taking on an unacceptable amount of risk. Repkon’s process and equipment are proprietary. What if they decide to pull their automated assembly lines out? The U.S. doesn’t just need domestic production, it needs to own its production; this would be a concern if Repkon were a Japanese, German, British, or French business, too.

Knowing that there is a physical way for the U.S. to increase production if it needs to; that, essentially, its ammunition production woes are something of a luxury, in other words — is an interesting piece of information. Is it time for the U.S. to embrace a newer model, itself? or should it find a way to hire enough people at new factories to make its slower and less reliable production mechanism viable?

TOP READS IN MONEY & FINANCE

While most people worry about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Taiwan is plotting an (economic) invasion of Europe; they hope to take over European chip producers. Frankly, Europe could probably use the help.

Investors are eyeing small-cap stocks in certain industries, wondering if the time is right to buy, yet. If it isn’t now, it will be soon.

Birkenstock IPO launches with the German-based shoe company netting $46 per share. That’s about 1/4 the cost of a set of new Birkenstocks.

Good piece about how to view the process of taking out college loans for 2024-25.

TOP READS IN THE MILITARY

Israel seems set on an invasion of Gaza, a move that may involve U.S. mililtary assistance.

Army’s looking at improving training procedures for its dogs — hoping to give them the support it gives to soldiers.

Confusingly, the military settled with a bunch of people who didn’t want to get vaccinated.

Navy missed its recruiting goals by 7,000 sailors for 2023.

TOP READS FOR VETERANS

Very interesting initiative in Connecticut that seeks to update a policy intended to free veterans from property tax obligations — but hasn’t taken into account inflation *since the Civil War*.

Bank error: lose $10 monopoly card, but for VA health claims.

VA secretary announces new VA Chief of Staff. She’s a Navy veteran!

TOP READS AROUND THE WORLD

Harvard and other Ivy League schools were slow to condemn Hamas’s attack on Israel, raising concerns that leaders there care more about the downside of risk than doing the right thing.

Damning testimony by Caroline Ellison against Sam Bankman-Fried. She is his ex-girlfriend and was also a member of FTX leadership

Finland and Estonia believe a pipeline of theirs was sabotaged. I’m sure the “Hamas is good” “Russia was justified in their invasion of Ukraine” “It’s all the U.S. and NATO’s fault” crowd have some kooky explanation for it that shifts blame away from where it almost certainly lies.

HUMOR

This is how you break the cycle of toxic masculinity! Wow!