Canceling Investment in the U.S. Defense Industry

THE BIG STORY

Aid to Ukraine is Aid to U.S. Manufacturing

Congress’s failure to fund aid to Ukraine damages U.S. defense manufacturing

In 2021, the rate of production for 155mm howitzer shells was neither public knowledge, nor was it easy to come by. 14,400 rounds per month. That had been sufficient for GWOT and there was no reason to believe the U.S. would ever need to produce much more. Further, the assumption was that if there was an urgent need, the U.S. could throw a switch somewhere, as it did in WWII, and turn car factories or whatever into assembly lines churning out the equipment, vehicles, and weapons required to win.

When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, that assumption was put to the test. It failed. Initial calls to produce the necessary amount of artillery ammunition (the decisive weapon in the war) by the end of 2023 were replaced by aspirations to meet the goal of 100,000 rounds per month (a little less than what the U.S. averaged over the course of WWII — 106k/month) by 2024. It looks increasingly like that goal will shift to 2025, or later.

What isn’t well understood, at least politically, is that much of the money going to aid Ukraine is (in practical terms) going to the companies that produce various components for ammunition and weapons, most conspicuously (given recent coverage) for 155mm ammunition, which is in short supply. An article that appeared in Defense One two weeks ago explained how the U.S. approach to increasing ammo production was going better than that of European counterparts. That was before Congress refused to pass a bill funding expansion initiatives in U.S. companies. As a result of Congressional inaction (largely Republican, in a bizarre and ahistorical twist — traditionally, Republicans have been pro-military and in favor of increased defense spending), that money will no longer be there.

In the Defense One article linked above, the Army Secretary of Acquisition Doug Bush is quoted stating that without Congressional funding, the Army will not meet its goal of producing 100,000 rounds of 155mm ammunition by the end of 2025.

Where are the companies that will now no longer benefit from those jobs? According to these Defense News pieces, Tennessee, Arkansas, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and California all have companies that stand to benefit directly from the deceptively titled “aid to Ukraine” — as do important strategic partners and allies Poland, Canada, and India.

Benefit in the form of jobs, but also in the form of expertise and systems that have been difficult to come by lately. Refining various chemical compounds to forms stable and safe enough to make crucial components in smokeless powder is within reach of a well-stocked high school chemistry lab; performing those actions that at scale and repetitively requires major infrastructure investment and a fair bit of training for workers. Far more investment and training is needed for more sophisticated equipment such as state-of-the-art stinger and javelin missiles, both of which are in short supply and high demand, and would be whether it was Ukraine fighting the Russians, or ourselves fighting a two-front war against Russia and China (a distinct possibility, and therefore one for which the U.S. needs to prepare). This work is dangerous; it involves items that are designed to explode with great force, and produce deadly effects when they explode as designed, either intentionally or accidentally.

The type of jobs under discussion don’t require a college education. They require strength, manual dexterity, and a modicum of discretion and integrity. At stake are hundreds of jobs that, properly resourced ought to be careers, that best type of job — careers that were slashed by millions between the 1950s and the 1990s, during the off-shoring of factories that unfolded in the U.S., which hollowed out a formidable industrial base and left the U.S. dependent on foreign countries and alliances for basic goods.

Howitzer ammunition is one significant but small part (taking up $1.5 billion) of a much larger bill. That bill is necessary for Ukraine’s self-defense. More importantly, it is necessary for America’s self-defense, as the investment will develop and sustain capacity that the U.S. does not currently possess. That capacity is gone, and has been for decades. Democrats are willing to support the investment because it serves the purpose of defending democracies — one would think that Republicans would support it for jobs, and for a healthy and well-stocked U.S. military (which depends on a robust defense industrial base).

Support for aid to Ukraine, then, does not take the form of pallets of money shipped willy-nilly to Ukraine. It takes the form of jobs (and, given time and attention, careers) in a U.S. defense industry that is, for the first time in decades, growing again. It’s investment in companies such as Armtec Industries, American Ordnance, Action Manufacturing Company, and Security Signals, Inc. — companies that survived the lean years, and are trying to grow again but need investment and permission from the federal government.

As has been described here before, the Department of Defense is the only purchaser for U.S. weapons and ammunition at this level. It’s all or nothing. This is not a place that private industry can step in and ramp up production. There is only one buyer capable of placing an order for this sort of ammunition at this scale. Playing politics with aid for Ukraine might score cheap political points. More importantly, it’s stalling urgently needed investment in U.S. defense capacity. That’s bad for all of us.

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