Originally, today was going to feature the first in a series of deep dives into the US military’s recruiting crisis. Both “by the numbers,” looking at data over the last three decades, and using analysis by think tanks and individuals interested in the question of why.

Then Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Russia’s infamous mercenary group, named for German composer Richard Wagner, was killed.

Occasionally breaking news will supersede what we have planned — especially when a person happens to know something about an event. So today’s newsletter is, in addition to the usual roundup of news that should be interesting to the military community, also an opportunity to look a little closer at an influential world figure — at one point, very briefly, perhaps the most powerful man in Russia.

THE BIG STORY

Wagner Group's Yevgeny Prigozhin Dead

Late in the day, August 23, 2023, Yevgeny Prigozhin died in a plane crash along with the bulk of the Wagner Group (a mercenary group Prigozhin ran) leadership. He was 62.

There is some conjecture around the causes of his death. Falling from a great height in his personal jet is the obvious answer, but how and why did the plane fail? Was it sabotage, or was the plane shot out of the sky by anti-air? Was it one of his political rivals in Russia, or was he killed on the orders of Vladimir Putin — retribution for Prigozhin’s unexpectedly successful march on Moscow, which after several hours had taken on the characteristics of a full-blown coup? As with many matters in the mysterious country, it may be difficult to ever know the exact truth.

One thing that jumps out to me about Prigozhin is his legacy as Wagner’s head — like many organizations in Russia, they’re like funhouse mirrors of their American equivalents. Mercenary contracting groups in the US, such as Dyncorps (now Amentum) or Blackwater (now Academi) drew on former U.S. service members and paid them well to do missions the U.S. military couldn’t or wouldn’t. It wasn’t seen as a bad way to make money, especially for an enlisted infantrymen or special forces soldier whose most directly marketable skills (absent a formal education) all depended on war. In fact, it was one of the very few ways in which someone who knew how to carry a rifle and work effectively as part of a team could make big money after serving. Not many opportunities offered $100k+ per year to someone with 6 years in the USMC infantry or airborne infantry and no college degree. If you believe in an America where skill, hunger, and ambition should equate to a well-paying job with opportunities for advancement (and I do!), the U.S. PMCs were part of the egalitarian fabric. Jobs for people who knew war, after they were done with their service, who maybe didn’t want to head to college — or couldn’t afford to.

The private military contractor (PMC) Wagner, on the other hand, became an explicit competitor to the Russian military. I’d only seen anything like that once before, in Ukraine, in 2014, when then-president Petro Poroshenko permitted oligarchs and ideological groups to stand up their own militias. Then, Ukraine had to do so to survive; the military was a hollow shell of itself, with no more than 7,000 soldiers in three units fit to fight from a paper strength of 125,000. Corruption and a lack of funds had starved Ukraine’s military almost to death. Some say that was a deliberate choice of the previous, pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych. Whatever the case, when you have 7,000 soldiers and the 12 tanks you use for yearly parades and you’re facing the Russian military, you make some hard decisions. One of them was permitting non-state actors to field what amounted to nearly 50 battalion- or brigade-size units consisting of between 40,000 and 50,000 soldiers. Numbers are hard to come by. In 2015, with the situation stabilized and the military back in healthy shape, Poroshenko directed that these militias be formally brought into the military structure. All but two (Right Sector and OUN) chose to do so, and became units within Ukraine’s military.

Wagner was brought into Putin’s Special Military Operation when things began to go wrong, which was very early in the fighting. By any measure, they were effective (if immoral), playing a notable and key role in the battle for the city (now destroyed) of Bakhmut. According to Russian sources, Russia’s military would not have been able to take the city without Wagner, which paid a terrible price in human life to seize it; reliable estimates put the number of killed around 25,000, of which Wagner bore the brunt.

They accomplished this by doing things that the U.S. military is occasionally accused of, for practices that were commonplace during Vietnam and in the wars of last century and before: conscripting people off the street, offering prisoners pardons, offering sums of money that the military could or would not. It was egalitarian from the perspective of a severely troubled Russian society, wracked with unemployment — but the opportunities were different from those provided by U.S. PMCs. Coercive, with a truly terrible downside; signing up for PMC Wagner came, at the height of the fighting, with an astonishingly high risk of being killed or wounded.

Key to this gambit was Prigozhin, who was well inside Putin’s trusted circle. Nobody else could have been entrusted with this amount of power, with this destabilizing mission — to create a military next to Russia’s military that could fight.

Prigozhin, as it turned out, could not be trusted with this power or responsibility. Folks who know their history understand that very few people can. For every Cincinnatus or Washington who set out to save a nation, history provides ten Napoleons, Hitlers, or Prigozhins — people who get power and sense their chance to take it all. And you have a better chance of finding a Cincinnatus or Washington from among a country and people like Rome, or the United States. Russia is currently run as a mafia, by criminals — the odds that Prigozhin would be the selfless hero they needed were always very low.

The big question that remains for Russia is what to do with PMCs in general. Putin finds himself with a quandry. If he has any sense left, he’ll understand that every PMC is now a latent existential threat to him, personally, and every PMC leader a potential assassin or coup leader. Meanwhile, he needs them to continue the fight in Ukraine. His model — the authoritarian dictator — depends on trusting the people around him to be loyal. How, though, does one establish that loyalty? And if one cannot, how does one effectively run a war and a country at the same time? What tasks does one delegate? And to whom?

Ultimately, Prigozhin’s death offers the latest example of that age-old adage. Live by the sword, die by the sword. His wife and daughter are wealthy, at least as long as they are tolerated by Putin and his regime. Everything else is dust.

MONEY AND FINANCE

An indication that commercial real estate is, in fact, in serious trouble: while businesses are signing leases at an increased rate, the multi-year commitments they’re locking in are for smaller (sometimes, much smaller) spaces.

Western businesses with exposure to Russia are obviously in trouble. China, however, once seen as a land of opportunity, seems headed in that direction, too. If you have a portfolio you may want to take that into consideration.

If you have money in Bonds and CDs you’ve probably been pretty happy at the returns. Make sure you or your accountant is tracking that — taxes aren’t withheld on dividends, which could lead to a nasty surprise at the end of the year.

If you’re traveling to NYC and you’re accustomed to using Airbnb — big changes are afoot. Make sure you know what the rules are.

Another cautionary tale: as the US government regulates NFTs more effectively, investors may be exposed to a raft of laws including insider training.

AROUND THE WORLD

Farmers are wrestling with some of the same problems the military experienced in Iraq and Afghanistan — a flood of data from new technology, and some difficulty finding ways to analyze and make sense of it all.

A split seems to be growing along partisan lines for supporting Ukraine. There is no obvious reason for this beyond partisanship — especially considering the historical affinity for Russia among Democrats, and opposition to it from Republicans.

India landed on the moon — the fourth country (or alliance) after the US, the USSR, and China to do so. The landing is the first at a lunar pole, and comes at a time of heightening tension between India and its neighbor, China.

MILITARY NEWS

Iran has a new combat drone. Looks familiar somehow… I can’t place it…

Work being done to develop an effective anti-drone missile for the US — something more than a hunting shotgun, apparently!

A potential government shutdown hinges on so-called “woke” military policies. Good grief!

A few National guardsmen were injured by coyotes.

OF INTEREST TO VETERANS

A technical glitch has delayed disability claims decisions for a sizable number of veterans. Over 30,000.

Poll workers are resigning or staying away from a procedure that’s sure to be heavily contested by partisanship. Can veterans fill the gap?

One of those things where you think to yourself — no, can’t be true — veterans of atomic operations denied benefits for having developed illnesses and conditions related to radiation poisoning.

HUMOR

If it has to do with the Harlem Globetrotters or the Washington Generals, I’m going to read it. This piece on their history was worth it.