It’s Wednesday, and we’re about halfway through our service-by-service look at the military’s recruiting woes. So far we’ve covered Space Force and the Air Force, and seen how while they both face the same overall challenges as other services, they also enjoy unique advantages given the concerns many young recruits have about death, PTSD, and injury.

Today we examine the Navy (or, as I’ve heard them described colloquially if not always affectionately “fleet”). One of the military’s oldest branches, with a long and robust tradition that evolved side by side with the country itself, alongside the Army, the Navy helped establish the idea of modern recruiting. It cut its teeth during the wars of independence and those that followed, and perhaps more than any other service was responsible for establishing U.S. supremacy on the waves, and as a global hub for trade.

Now, it’s in the middle of a recruiting crisis the likes of which it hasn’t seen in nearly 100 years. It has advantages no other service does, but the challenges it faces are similarly great. In the 21st century, at a moment war is characterized by decentralized technology permitting drone swarms on air and sea for which we have few current answers, who wants to work and fight from a giant floating target?

THE BIG STORY

Adrift in the 21st Century: Navy Recruiting

Of all the services, the Navy is probably in the worst position to appeal to young recruits.

If you had to pick a word or image to describe each service, it might go something like this: Army, soldiers. Marines, soldiers (just louder). Air Force, jets. Space Force, satellites. Navy — boats.

Big boats, even. Really big boats.

There’s a lot more to the U.S. Navy. Traditions, uniforms (great uniforms), discipline, order. Prestige. The U.S. Navy has its own jets, too; in fact, Naval Aviation by itself is the second most powerful air force in the world, after the U.S. Air Force. That’s right, America has two of the most powerful air forces in the world. With Russia’s inability to submit Ukraine’s comparatively small air force, the number three slot is anyone’s guess. Maybe Israel.

But this isn’t what one thinks about in considering the Navy; comparatively few join the Navy for a nuance like its excellent EOD program, or to become a Navy SEAL (far smaller and more selective than Space Force), or for Naval Aviation. The majority of people join the Navy expecting to serve as a sailor on a really big boat.

And if as we’ve seen in previous newsletters there is a challenge selling military service to young Americans who do not find it inspiring or interesting, it must certainly be the case in a time of Tik Tok, social media, and transparency that no other service has a harder task making the case that Navy is (a) safe and (b) preparing you for a solid career in the future.

Adults know that even on a technical level, learning how to work on a ship as a young man or woman today will almost certainly mean you have work (if you want it) 20 or 30 years from now. Fundamental things like “shipping” don’t change as quickly as one might believe while consuming a steady diet of NYT and Washington Post Op-Eds. Just look at the effect Russia’s Black Sea blockade has had on food — blocking one country (Ukraine) from making shipments to Africa is likely to destabilize a continent. No — shipping is a stable and essential part of the world economy, and that means jobs.

But most young men and women don’t see things that way, or think that way. They’re attracted to novelty, and want to be part of something revolutionary. From this perspective, Space Force and the Air Force have a built-in advantage, as ships and boats are things of the past.

This might explain — I can’t say for sure — why the Navy was able to meet its 2022 recruiting numbers for active duty enlisted sailors (barely, using the same accounting trick as the Air Force and Marine Corps), but missed its numbers for reserves, and for officers across the board. If one has just graduated from college, or is thinking about attending college, unless one has a family legacy of serving on a ship, why would one put on a Navy uniform in the 21st century?

My personal feeling, looking at the numbers, evaluating the Zeitgeist, licking my proverbial index finger and sticking it into the wind, is that Navy recruiters have a very tough job in front of them, and are “rowing against the tide,” so to speak. And the solution isn’t going to be simple or straightforward, like having recruiters work six days a week, as was briefly considered this summer.

One thing the Navy has done that seems to be working well was to take a page out of the Army’s playbook (we’ll talk more about this Friday or Monday) and open a pre-basic course to help recruits get in shape mentally and physically for boot camp. This seems to be having some positive effects, though it’s difficult to gauge how practical it is at a greater scale.

But similar moments in the past where most people hoping to join the Navy were somehow unsuitable corresponded with times of great trouble or strife. In the early 1930s, according to this history of Navy recruiting, applicants shot through the roof during the depression; only 1 in 10 people were suitable to join, however, so the skyrocketing applications were by themselves not sufficient for the Navy’s purposes.

The answer to the Navy’s recruiting problems before and during the depression was WWII, and the Cold War that followed. Essentially, when the military is seen to be important or essential, people will join it. At its height during WWII the Navy had around 3,500,000 personnel — many of which would not have qualified to join under peacetime conditions.

The Navy — and other services — would like to believe (and it may be true) that quantifiable factors such as education, fitness related in part to the pandemic, and economic considerations are the primary drivers of recruiting. These are things for which one can control — offer more incentives to join and to reenlist, do more to emphasize competitive technical jobs, create fitness programs for recruits.

There’s another set of factors that the Navy would probably rather not address. Every service has wrestled with the increased attention and transparency permitted by social media, and it isn’t just goofing off. Catastrophes and scandals have a way of attaching themselves to a service, and if the older Naval leadership think about Tail Hook, young men and women probably know the Navy for the collisions and and fires of ships, drinking water on bases, and (in a more abstract sense) have watched videos of remote controlled surface drones sinking Russian ships. Nobody wants to be part of an organization that is synonymous with trouble (whether this is an accurate characterization of the Navy or not is another question), especially when it feels (as boats do) like a service that lives in the past.

Far more than other services, I see the Navy as vulnerable to social shifts and narratives. We live in an era of change and progress. Adults know that one can make a good life after service in the Navy. Many adolescents may not understand that, or need to have it explained to them — especially those hoping to be officers. The Navy has much to recommend it. No service prepares people better for management in a corporate environment (think about the skills one needs to succeed as a junior or mid-level officer in the Navy versus the Army). Ships are incredibly complex social and engineering projects. Where and how to tell that story to potential recruits? I suppose that’s up to recruiters!

TOP READS IN MONEY & FINANCE

AI startups are facing a “reality check” according to this WSJ piece, as businesses and investors ask for deliverables and lofty promises go unmet.

Offices have lost 31% of their value since the Fed started raising interest rates. Investors are paying attention and looking for potential deals.

Goldman Sachs used Chinese state funds to buy businesses in the U.S. and U.K., including one cyber security business. Things certainly were different a few years ago… oh, the cyber business was bought in 2021? Carry on.

Japanese department store workers plan the first strike of its kind since 1950 over the sale of their store to a U.S. investment fund. Maybe they heard about Goldman using Chinese state funds.

Lego had its worst year profitability wise in two decades. Bring back classic Castle Legos!

TOP READS IN THE MILITARY

Navy is looking at fighting hazing in the fleet as a way of improving leadership at the NCO level. Any time you see traditions challenged, pushback is not far behind…

Florida calls up over 5k National Guardsmen in preparation for Hurricane Idalia — following up moving HQ elements out of the hurricane’s path.

Astonishing story about a National Guard element in Texas that decided to sua sponte a surveillance program targeting foreign nationals and migrants. Wild, wild stuff for anyone who thought twice about crossing the border into Pakistan during missions in Afghanistan.

With the military, when you hear that a base wants to test its water, it’s never a great sign. Given what’s happened on Navy and USMC bases, it’s probably necessary everywhere.

The names of Marines who were killed in the V-22 Osprey crash in Australia were released.

TOP READS FOR VETERANS

The VA says it may be able to reach its goal of 38k homeless veterans matched with housing by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, there’s someone in Delaware making that same effort look bad using money for veterans on lavish salaries and benefits.

Interesting piece that looks at an initiative that reduces DoD retirement pay when the retiree is a combat veteran retirement with service connected disabilities that forced them to medically retire early.

TOP READS AROUND THE WORLD

The US has targeted 10 drugs for lower pricing. What I want to know is, when are they gonna get around to cocaine. Way too expensive! Wait — is this the humor section?

Saudi Arabia is negotiating with Israel to bring the two countries closer, and overcome diplomatic issues. Key to that is resuming its funding of the PLA.

Germany caught a businessman selling key parts to Russia.

Rent controls have not had the intended consequence in Germany, where younger renters are looking for increasingly scarce housing.

HUMOR

The iPhone 15 will notify you when it’s time to throw it into the Sea, writes excellent humor site Clickhole.