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We’re in day three of our focus on recruiting. And today we evaluate the Air Force — the organization from which Space Force was created, in much the same way that the Air Force itself was spun off from the Army. Space Force uses Air Force facilities and training, and its ethos is an evolution of Air Force ethics. It’s smaller than Air Force, and easier to get a handle on conceptually. But the two share much.

Similarly, the Air Force was (originally) the product of the Army, sharing training facilities, leadership, recruiting, and infrastructure with its big green progenitor until 1954. There’s a lot more time and history to cover. Today’s article will attempt to grapple with some of that, and maybe understand a bit better the specific nuances of Air Force recruiting, and understand the contours of the problems it’s having.

THE BIG STORY

Missed Opportunities

Why is the Air Force, which seems ideally positioned to appeal to today’s potential recruits, still struggling to make mission?

The good news recently from the Air Force Recruiting Service (AFRS) was that recruiting for 2023 probably won’t miss their goal by much more than 10%, which was their early projection.

When that’s the good news, well, the news isn’t great.

In 2022, the Air Force made its active duty goal — barely — by robbing Peter to pay Paul, or, as then-commander of AFRS Major General (retired) Edward W. Thomas, Jr. put it, a “dead stick landing.”

Wikipedia helpfully explains that a “dead stick” or “deadstick” landing is a term that refers to landing an aircraft when it loses propulsive power, and refers — not to the flight controls — but to the wooden propellor at the front of the plane when the term was coined.

Pretty grim way to think about the state of recruiting for the Air Force.

But it seems apt, when one looks at the numbers. Recruiting for active duty is down — primarily among enlisted — but numbers are also down, dramatically so, for Air Reserve and Air National Guard. AFR and AFNG missed their recruiting goals by nearly 2,000 each in 2022, the first time that had happened in decades, and are behind this year, too.

We’ll look at this phenomenon with other services, too — the if not unprecedented, extremely unusual collapse of NG & Reserve recruiting — but I wanted to talk about it first in the context of the Air Force, both because of what it says about the broader recruiting crisis, and because of how it underlines the threat this poses to the military — a serious threat, but not the threat one probably thinks.

If you remember Friday’s post, one thing that stood out about the Office of People Analytics (OPA) analysis was how turned off people seemed to be over the threat of being hurt or dying after having joined the military. Death, injury, and (among women) sexual assault/harassment were among the top concerns, and felt more keenly than the top reasons to join (pay, benefits, travel, and soforth).

Why this should be a new or special concern is a question for the analysts — video games, movies, and culture must play some role, as serving in the military is historically safe from the perspective of death or severe injury — but it is unquestionably a concern.

Another top concern is leaving friends or family.

Anyone who’s served in the military knows that National Guard and Reserve units can’t be beat from a safety perspective (few deploy save in dire emergencies, reducing the threat of death or injury) and as far as leaving friends and family goes. The benefits are fewer, as is the training and prestige, but if the calculus among potential recruits truly depended on overcoming concern about death, injury, or proximity to home, filling the ranks with Reservists and National Guardspeople would, presumably, not be a difficult sale. This suggests that other factors are at play.

The Reserves and Guard are also places that people often go after leaving Active Duty. This is especially true for officers, many of whom would prefer to serve under knowable and dependable terms than roll the dice with IRR — especially after meeting people who were pulled off IRR to serve second or third deployments during the surge in Iraq and Afghanistan. Better to serve with a Guard unit in Massachusetts as a friend of mine did while attending Harvard Business School then risk getting a letter in the mail, derailing one’s plans for education, family, and career.

This is what Thomas Jr. meant when he called 2022’s recruiting numbers a “dead stick landing” — and why 2023’s underperformance is real cause for concern. The water level going down in a reservoir is concerning enough as is — secondary and tertiary effects make it downright alarming.

While doing research on the causes behind the Air Force’s current recruiting woes — less dramatic than the Army’s, as the Air Force is considered a comparatively pleasant place to serve in terms of culture and physical conditions, but still alarming — I found a short research paper that examined the recruiting problems encountered by the Air Force since its founding. Titled “Trends in Air Force Recruiting: 1945-1994” the paper (which can be found online via Air Force University), it was written by an NCO in the mid-90s, is well-researched, and offers some insights into two moments in history when the Air Force was beset by formidable recruiting challenges: its founding, when it separated itself from the Army, and in the aftermath of Vietnam, transitioning to an all-volunteer force.

In both of those cases, the Air Force focused on the prestige of serving — it branded itself as a place to serve with honor and distinction, comfortably, and with good benefits. This worked for the Air Force, in spite of the widespread fatigue with war after WWII (and Korea), and general hostility to the armed services and anger with the draft after Vietnam. The Air Force prioritized a narrative of excellence within and for the force. And that was a good fit for the Air Force — the technical expertise required usually required intelligent and disciplined people who were hungry for education.

For decades, Air Force branding has successfully attracted candidates that would probably not consider joining the Army or Marines. It has created the type of atmosphere that is known for safety, comfort, and reliability. It’s well known to be a feeder for post-military employment — well-paying and stable careers in whatever field one wants. If any service was designed to weather the type of problems suggested by the OPA analysis, surely it’s the Air Force.

If, as research says, the culture is shifting in the US, and there is something the military isn’t offering that it could, or that US citizens are becoming more discriminating about their service, the Air Force is the best positioned to take advantage of that development. That they are having trouble doing so raises questions about the efficacy of their recruiters and strategy. It also calls into question the very premise of recruiting and the current approach to force structure. If the Air Force can’t make numbers in this environment — and they of all services should — maybe it’s time to take a big step back and ask why.

TOP READS IN MONEY & FINANCE

Some home owners are electing not to insure their homes, as insurance rates rise.

Student loans are due to unpause this Friday.

I’ve never used a food delivery service and don’t understand how they’re profitable but one of them is being taken public; if that’s something you believe in, it should be an exciting opportunity. Personally? I grow fruits and veggies in my backyard.

A remarkable piece on a certain type of municipal bond you’ve probably never heard of that is absolutely NOT worth putting money into without doing extensive research beforehand.

TOP READS IN THE MILITARY

Essay about the state of Taiwanese readiness and willingness to defend itself as a nation against prospective Chinese invasion. Thought-provoking.

Thousands of Garmin smart watches are being issued to Space Force in order to help the force test its new fitness program and other soldier fitness initiatives — more than a third of the force will be equipped with the expensive equipment.

Investigators are trying to stop the influx of fentanyl to Navy basic training after multiple junior sailers have died from overdoses.

TOP READS FOR VETERANS

A study established an over 50% greater surge in suicide among veterans with PTSD than in the general population.

VA doing an incredible job housing at-risk or homeless veterans since the beginning of 2023. Here’s how they did it.

Fox apologizes to Gold Star family after starting a false rumor about the military’s treatment of a deceased Marine.

TOP READS AROUND THE WORLD

The EU is talking about expanding to take in Ukraine, Balkan nations and other candidate countries in 2030… Turkey? Probably not.

A changing climate is impacting longstanding industries that rely on the ocean. The piece focuses on Maine, but also sports a compelling map of the world’s oceans.

You’ve heard about quiet quitting. What about quiet cutting?

China and America’s deteriorating relationship is affecting Apple’s supply chain.

Did you know that insurers exist for satellites? Or that Starlink doesn’t insure its satellites?

Colleges are adjusting to the effects of the recent Supreme Court decision, which prevents affirmative action in the selection of a student population. One group that’s sure to benefit? Veterans.

HUMOR

Nerd who spent all summer getting in shape discovers that his bully worked twice as hard. Hate it when that happens!