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THE BIG STORY

A Military Supply Chain is as Strong as its Weakest Link

And Ukraine's war of self-defense against Russia's invasions is exposing many weak links.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine and the West belatedly provided Ukraine with assistance in the form of weapons and equipment as it fought back against (initially) overwhelming odds, some realities have been made clear. One: a successful military depends as much on the support of its people as its equipment. Two: Even decades-old equipment can be effective. Three: being prepared for war means one has a chance to win outright at the beginning; neither Russia nor Ukraine were truly prepared for the war Russia started.

A fourth lesson, which has not fully sunk in with a majority of westerners, is that our supply chain and manufacturing capacity has been optimized and streamlined until it is a series of links some of which depend on a single point of failure. The most conspicuous example of this in the U.S. was its inability to produce more than a fraction of the 155mm howitzer ammunition consumed by Ukraine’s military — a critical failing masked by America’s vast stores of the ammunition. Even worse, efforts to ramp up production within a year failed, leading to revised projections that production would meet need by 2025.

If America’s supply chain has become a systems engineer’s dream, and in so doing been made vulnerable, totally inadequate for the country’s needs, Russia has the opposite problem: a bewildering expanse of corruption and incompetence in which little progress has been made in decades (and some steps backward). Still, those parts of Russia’s economy that touched the West’s and America’s economy could not help but be impacted by it. Which is how it came to develop a critical vulnerability of its own, in the last place one might expect it — the oil industry.

Russia is a dominant producer and refiner of oil and natural gas — much of the state’s wealth comes from its vast natural resources. But when it invaded Ukraine, something interesting happened: Western oil and gas companies left, pulling personnel and vast stores of technical expertise with them. As it turned out, some of that expertise included the production of advanced additives required to produce the quantity and quality of lubricant needed to run machines such as cars, planes, and boats. This lubricant is also used in more advanced weapons systems.

Russia has made do with its own inferior lubricant, produced in a handful (under a dozen) factories, supplemented by imports from Asia which are also not of the same level or quality as those capable of being produced in the West. It’s one of those weird spaces where a little expertise and production makes it possible to produce the great quantities of lubricant needed in a country at war — without which, importing slows things down.

This also means that, if these few factories were to be knocked out somehow, realistically, Russia’s ability to wage organized warfare would quickly (and literally) grind to a halt as engines seized, artillery guns broke, and rifles and machinegun parts wore out.

The United States is not the only country with supply chain issues. Finding ways to help Ukraine destroy single points of failure in Russia’s war machine will be a great way to shut down an illegal, immoral, and exhausting war of attrition. Then the U.S. can turn its attention to making sure its military and industry can be depended on to fight on advantageous terms.

TOP READS IN MONEY & FINANCE

OpenAI is in talks to sell shares for $86 Billion. This looks like a great short position, and a great long position — can’t say that about many stocks.

Morgan Stanley’s profits dropped by 9% this quarter. Hey, they still made a profit!

Pfizer’s Paxlovid drug to treat COVID costs around $1400 for those who are uninsured (for European readers, “uninsured” in the U.S. is people with no health insurance who have to pay all of their medical bills out of pocket).

TOP READS IN THE MILITARY

The U.S. military is adopting a use-based approach to service of its equipment and vehicles rather than time-based; if you don’t use a vehicle, it doesn’t need as much service. Makes sense. One wild thing from the article which is classic military is that nobody could say exactly why the military had adopted or was observing time-based maintenance in the first place, which has not been industry standard for decades.

In a step backwards, digital avionics to replace dials, levers, and switches on USAF C-130s. I’ll miss those scenes in movies where the pilot is reaching around flicking switches and pounding on the dash to get things working.

The Navy continues to boost its presence near Israel.

Troops are not getting enough time or resources to transition properly back into the civilian world, concludes person with eyes and ears.

TOP READS FOR VETERANS

The war in Afghanistan “wasn’t worth it,” concludes the very people who sent the military to Afghanistan. All righty then!

BREAKING: Proud military veteran Ron DeSantis still running for president.

An NGO pairs wounded veterans with service animals. Pretty cool concept.

TOP READS AROUND THE WORLD

The U.S. is very quietly normalizing relations with Venezuela. Who needs Russia for oil and gas, any way?

Drug gangs are infiltrating the supply chain — this article makes it sound more like an invasion or hostile takeover than an infiltration.

The head of PWC, typically the head of the prestigious firm’s U.S. division, likely won’t be after the controversial exit of a leading contender.

The first of many lawsuits against AI alleges that the algorithms used artist’s IP to create new IP (but without their consent).

This would be more troubling to me if “the developing world” had given Ukraine any meaningful support to begin with.

Cybertruck is coming! I’m still not sure why; I guess for people who always wanted to drive something out of a low budget 1980s sci fi movie.

Still no speaker for the U.S. House of Representatives as the Republican far right learns the hard way that it has to do politics like everyone else and also that they might just not be very good at politics.

HUMOR

This isn’t supposed to be funny, but anyone who’s been through basic training knows that it is.