THE BIG STORY

The Rock Hopes to Help Military Recruiting

As the military throws everything into arresting the declining new recruits, what is the utility of celebrity messages?

Jabronis, once automatically disqualified from joining any military service, are now welcome to sign a contract and serve.

That or something similar is likely to be the message when Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, famed for his career as a professional wrestler and more recent as an actor, brings his charisma and enthusiasm to the task of boosting military recruitment.

Is this likely is this to affect numbers? Frankly, no — or at least not much.

While celebrity endorsements have long been known to make a difference for the positive in advertising campaigns (otherwise we would see fewer of them), a lot of that depends on the way the celebrity is employed — what the endorsement consists of, how they’re viewed by the target audience, and the response that marketers hope to elicit in viewers/readers.

A key component to celebrity advertising is demonstrating that the celebrity uses the product the way a regular, non-celebrity person would. Someone who buys LeBron James sneakers does not realistically expect to perform better on a basketball court, but there is a kind of endorsement implicit in wearing the same shoe one has seen used in an NBA game. Ditto when one sees an admired actor or public figure drinking a particular brand of soda, or patronizing a franchise restaurant. The appeal (whether this is appreciated consciously or not) is of experiencing the world alongside another person. Especially in a reality dominated by social media, the internet, Zoom, and even this humble newsletter, there is a powerful longing to know one belongs. Celebrity advertising offers evidence of that belonging.

Here, though, we run into a snag when it comes to celebrity advertising for the military. The snag is pretty obvious once you see it, not like a log hidden in a river — more like a set of rapids that is heard well before it’s seen. The snag is, there’s no way to credibly advertise the military without joining it yourself.

The greatest concerns that people have surrounding military service is that something unpleasant will happen to them. This is quite reasonable — the military is dangerous, and much, much moreso when the country is at war. People at present seem to have the idea that the country could be at war soon, perhaps as soon as the next 5-10 years. In certain fields — infantry, artillery, armor, pilot — serving in the military during wartime can, if you’re on the wrong mission in the wrong theater, be little better than a death sentence. If, for example, you were stationed as a soldier on the Philippines in December of 1940, you had about a 50/50 shot of surviving to the end of WWII. That’s a coin toss. Those odds are, as Pete Campbell of Mad Men famously said — “Not great, Bob!”

The military is in a bad position with recruiting, and it’s unlikely that celebrity spots will hurt recruiting (though it’s possible — trotting people out to encourage others to join when they themselves will or cannot could backfire). What would a true “celebrity endorsement” resemble? Pretty obvious: it would involve a celebrity joining the military to serve.

This would probably make a difference in recruiting numbers, especially with young folks, who are particularly impressionable when it comes to identity building and finding an in-group with whom to belong. Celebrities who are not seen as relevant to that target demographic (17-30, say) probably would not measurably increase or decrease recruiting numbers.

Who’s the most popular actor or celebrity, whose joining the military would make a significant impact on recruiting? Off the top of my head I’d say: Timothée Chalamet. He’s 27, he’s widely admired, and if fitness programs for fight sequences are as grueling as the trade magazines seem to imply, he’d probably be able to cruise through RASP. Get that guy a contract for RASP and put him on autoscuff!

Taylor Swift is another celebrity who comes to mind, and it would not be difficult to see her as a F-35 pilot, or a SWO.

When I was in the military between 2005-12, the celebrity who’d have had the most dramatic impact on recruiting? Marshall Mathers, aka Eminem. The Rock at his peak probably would also have had some impact on recruiting, if he’d joined the infantry or artillery or Special Operations — he’s a decade past that moment, though.

It’s tough to sell the military if one has not gone through the experience oneself. Most people know a family member or ancestor who served, or have a mostly-accurate public conception of what that service looked like (especially in wartime) — something akin to Big & Rich’s 8th of November. “You should serve but I haven’t” just doesn’t land the same way coming from a man on TV when your uncle and grandfather get plastered on Veterans Day and look really sad if asked about what it was like.

Here’s to hoping Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson can, as part of the military’s broader efforts to overhaul recruiting, do something to staunch the bleeding. The military can use all the help that it can get. Ultimately, civilians are worried about getting hurt or wounded in the military, this is their greatest concern. It’s difficult to overcome that worry when someone is telling you to “do as I say, not as I do.”

TOP READS IN MONEY & FINANCE

OpenAI struggles with its mission and vision as investors and Microsoft pressure it to restore its fired CEO, Sam Altman. Leadership 101: once a leader’s fired, you don’t put them back in charge, that bridge is gone.

By one measure, the office sector of commercial real estate is now worse than it was in the 2008-09 crisis: office managers are increasingly falling behind or defaulting on loans or mortgages, and banks are becoming unwilling to lend them more money. How many canaries have to die before the coal mine gets evacuated?

Online it can be fashionable for libertarians to complain about an excess of U.S. dollars in circulation. In the “real world” the problem is almost exactly the opposite of that, not enough physical dollars to go around.

Estate taxes change from state to state and from year to year. That’s caused a lot of trouble for some, and, occasionally, provided relief for others.

TOP READS IN THE MILITARY & FOR VETERANS

The Army and Marines know where to find potential recruits: anime nerds. Flash forward to a year from now when somehow recruiting numbers are even worse.

An app to “sublet” child care slots is being used on Air Force bases now — as always, one has to consider the risk to force protection, but there’s a lot of opportunity for development when it comes to optimizing services on bases.

I’m not trying to be a warmonger here, but surely “strikes against American forces” merit more of a response than sanctions!

TOP READS AROUND THE WORLD

This article is a must-read for anyone who has an ambition to rebuild a beautiful car in their spare time (helps if you’re an engineer).

Elon Musk seems increasingly unhinged online. He should probably just “log off,” as they say.

Meanwhile, DeSantis’s star is on the wane, and Nikki Haley is making a bid to be the “logical” alternative to Donald Trump. If I was a Republican, I’d feel a lot better voting for her than anyone else in the primary.

HUMOR

“Seriously? Another Dollar General?” brought me into this Duffel Blog piece about returning to one’s home town.